2:37 PM ADT Tuesday 27 August 2019 Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Prince Edward Island
FXCN31 CWHX 271800 Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.43 PM ADT Tuesday 27 August 2019.
At 3.00 PM ADT, tropical depression six was located near latitude 31.6 N and longitude 71.7 W, about 293 nautical miles or 542 km southeast of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 30 knots (56 km/h) and central pressure at 1009 MB. Six is moving northwest at 4 knots (7 km/h). Almost all consensus guidance and the gfs ensemble show the system passing south of Nova Scotia and continuing northeast over Central Newfoundland. The previous track has been tweaked towards this solution.
For Tropical Depression Six.
The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 p.m. ADT.
Tropical Depression Six expected to become Tropical Storm Erin tonight or early on Wednesday. Erin is then expected to begin tracking northeastward toward Atlantic Canada on Wednesday, likely bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Maritimes later Thursday or Friday.
1. Summary of basic information at 03:00 p.m. ADT.
Location: Near 31.6 North 71.7 West.
About distance 542 kilometres southeast of Cape Hatteras NC.
Maximum sustained winds: 56 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: Northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 1009 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
With Tropical Depression Six still over 1500 km and several days away from the region, details on impacts for Atlantic Canada can only be generalised at this time. Most of the impacts will depend greatly on the exact track the system takes through our region, which at this time is expected to be near the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Friday before moving into Newfoundland Friday night.
Strong and gusty winds will likely accompany the system, especially to the right of and near the eventual track it takes through our region. At this time it is unlikely that winds will reach warning criteria in the region (i.e. gusts to 90 km/h or higher), but could still be strong enough to cause isolated power outages and minor damage, especially given that trees are still in full leaf.
Given the current forecast track, the greatest impact from this system will be rainfall, which could meet or exceed warning criteria (50 mm or more in 24 hours) in parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and possibly southeastern New Brunswick. Maximum rainfall could locally exceed 100 mm in some isolated parts of these regions. Details will become more clear in the coming days as the system becomes better defined and draws nearer to our region.
At this time, given the expected intensity and track of the system, significant storm surge and coastal impacts from high waves are not very likely over the Maritimes. However, some higher than normal water levels and high surf are possible near and to the right of the track, and this will be monitored closely as the system evolves over the coming days.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Gale warnings will likely be required for waters near and adjacent to the track Erin takes through our region later on Thursday and Friday. Based on the current forecast intensity, storm force winds are not expected at this time.
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.