Tornadoes possible in Saskatchewan tomorrow


After today's severe weather in Alberta, the threat moves east tomorrow into Saskatchewan. Storms should develop in the early afternoon similar to today in Alberta. Above depicts, according to us, the most likely area for severe storms and possible tornadoes. The NAM 3km shows what radar "may" look like tomorrow afternoon/evening in SK:

Storms should develop near Swift Current, SK and along the cold front (depicted in our surface map), which should stretch from surface Low pressure from Kindersley, SK to Malta, Montana. Storms should remain semi-discrete as they move east-northeast towards Saskatoon and Regina. These may form into a line. Further to the north, there should be more veering of the winds.


Above is a depiction of strong instability pictured in southern and central Saskatchewan, storms moving into the areas in orange-red should become severe quite quickly. We are concerned mostly about a line from Melfort, SK to The Pas, MB where strong storms may begin to rotate and stay isolated long enough to put down some tornadoes. We will keep you updated tomorrow. Here is the outlook issued by the PASPC:

Saskatchewan

  • Area(s): Southern, Central, and Northern

  • Timing: Sunday afternoon, evening, and overnight

  • Threats: Hail 4-7 cm, wind gusts to 120 km/h, risk of tornado, and heavy rain

Ample moisture and instability will see widespread thunderstorm development as a trough of low pressure crosses the area. For south-central and southeastern areas, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornado. The trough and accompanying thunderstorms will shift into Manitoba near midnight. Non-severe thunderstorms expected in northern regions.



Manitoba

  • Area(s): Central and southwestern Manitoba

  • Timing: Sunday evening and overnight

  • Threats: Hail 3-5 cm, wind gusts to 100 km/h, and heavy rain

A few thunderstorms may develop in the southwest late in the day, with potential for isolated severe activity; otherwise, a trough of low pressure is expected to cross into Manitoba near midnight bringing more widespread thunderstorms to the area continuing into Monday morning.