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HIGH Impact Winter Storm Ahead for SK/MB

Updated: Mar 3




Saturday Mar 2nd - Monday Mar 4th 2024

 

Threat level: HIGH

Impacts: HIGH (based on population density)

Confidence: MODERATE (based on model agreements)

Expected hazards: Winter storm, freezing rain, sleet, blizzard conditions and power outages

Expected snowfall: 15-30cm with localized amounts exceeding 30cm

Time frame: START: Saturday overnight or Sunday early morning // END: Monday morning // PEAK: Sunday afternoon

Locations impacted: Southern Saskatchewan // Southern Manitoba

Expected watch: winter storm watches then possible blizzard warnings

Most likely areas impacted: areas of Southwestern Manitoba, Southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Interlakes



NAM 3km Precipitation Depiction from Fri evening to Sun evening

ECMWF Ensemble showing low placements

Discussion: an intense Colorado Low will develop somewhere in MT/WY and quickly move NE toward the Northern Plains and Manitoba on Saturday. General ensemble agreement on low development + placement, puts confidence of winter storm at MODERATE. This will set the stage for a potent winter storm to impact areas of SE Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba on Sunday. Ensembles place the NW quadrants into the usual SE SK/SW MB, which will see terrain-enhanced snowfall along the Manitoba Escarpment. This area could receive up to 40cm of snowfall. As always, snowfall totals will be difficult to pinpoint, but a general model blend consensus places a swath of 25-30cm of snow over a 24hrs period somewhere along or north of the Trans-Canada Hwy. The backside of the low on the evening/overnight Sunday into Monday will funnel northerly winds into the RRV bringing with it whiteout and/or blizzard conditions. Therefore, this will be a HIGH impact winter storm due to the combination of rapid snowfall accumulation and surface winds. Expect possible road closures across most of southern Manitoba through Monday.



Preliminary Snowfall Total Forecast (Sun-Mon)

  • Brandon: 20-30cm

  • Winnipeg: 15-20cm

  • Melita: 10-20cm

  • Dauphin: 25-35cm

  • Gimli: 15-25cm

  • Portage La Prairie: 20-30cm

  • Estevan: 20-30cm

  • McCreary: 30-40cm*


*Possible local maximum event snowfall.



 


Winter Storm Watch (Saskatchewan)

4:42 AM CST Friday 1 March 2024


Heavy snow and blowing snow with low visibility is expected in southern Saskatchewan. Snowfall totals: 25 to 35 cm Wind: gusts to 60 to 70 km/h When: Saturday morning through Monday night Remarks: A low pressure system in Montana will bring heavy snow beginning in the southwest section of Saskatchewan on Saturday morning. Along with heavy snow, gusty winds will create blowing snow and reduced visibility. This area of snow and blowing snow will move northeast and cover the remainder of the southern half of the province by Sunday morning. Snow and blowing snow will continue through Monday. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Travel is expected to be hazardous due to reduced visibility in some locations. Avoid travel if possible. For information on emergency plans and kits go to getprepared.gc.ca. Winter storm watches are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.


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