Updated: Jul 23, 2019
Upper-level ridge bringing southerly surface winds into Prairie Provinces will make temperatures soar in the mid-30's on Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon for most of the Prairie Provinces:
Above is forecast temperatures on Tuesday evening, depicting temperatures near 40C in southeastern Alberta. A storm threat is possible, but most of the province will remain "capped" due to high convective temperatures. A storm threat and tornado threat exists near Edmonton, AB. Dew points in the 20s will provide fuel for storms in central Alberta while the south remains fairly dry.
Strangely enough, this setup is quite similar to the Edmonton F4 tornado of July 31st 1987, with one exception, the temperatures. In 1987, the max temps in Edmonton were 24C with a dew point of 18.6C, tomorrow the temps are expected to be much higher (near 30C) with dew points near 20C. We will see what happens, the PASPC has an outlook out for tomorrow:
Area(s): Most of Alberta
Timing: Tuesday afternoon, evening and into the overnight hours.
Threats: 2-5 cm hail, gusts upwards of 100 km/h
A developing low pressure system in southern Alberta and associated trough extending northwestwards through western Alberta will be the focus for thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. As thunderstorms develop along the trough they have the potential to become severe through parts of western and central Alberta with hail up to 5 cm and gusts over 100 km/h being the main threats. Thunderstorms will begin in the late afternoon hours over western regions and move into central and eastern regions through the evening and overnight hours.
Wednesday will see everything move east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperatures in the mid-30s are expected (as shown below). Heat warnings have been issued for most of the Prairies ahead of these high temperatures.
Storms will be possible on Wednesday in southern Saskatchewan and again in Manitoba on Thursday. However, Thursday's threat may be confined to extreme southeastern Manitoba where a line of storms will likely develop and move east in northern Ontario. These could become supercells and track along the Trans-Canada highway moving east.
3:30 PM MDT Monday 22 July 2019 Heat Warning in effect for (areas in red):
Temperatures reaching 32 degrees Celsius combined with overnight lows near 16 degrees Celsius are expected for the next 2 days. A ridge of high pressure is currently in place over the Prairies. As a result, daytime high temperatures are once again expected to be near 32 degrees on Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to moderate somewhat by mid week.
Extreme heat affects everyone. Residents of and visitors to the warned regions are advised to take the following precautions to protect themselves, their families and their neighbours:
- Consider rescheduling outdoor activities to cooler hours of the day. - Take frequent breaks from the heat, spending time indoors in cooled buildings such as malls or indoor pools. - Drink plenty of water and other non-alcoholic, non-caffeinated beverages to stay hydrated. - Check for your children or pets before you exit your vehicle. Do not leave any person or pet inside a closed vehicle, for any length of time.
Monitor for symptoms of heat stroke or heat exhaustion, such as high body temperature, lack of sweat, confusion, fainting, and unconsciousness. Pay particular attention to individuals that can experience earlier or more severe effects from heat including infants, children, seniors, and individuals with pre-existing lung, heart, kidney, nervous system, mental health or diabetic conditions, outdoor workers, as well as those who are socially isolated.
Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.