Quick burst of snow expected Wed-Thurs after cold


NAV Canada graphical forecast valid for Wednesday morning

Well the title says it all, a quick burst of snow is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning for parts of southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. Unfortunately, it seems like the highest snowfall may occur across the Yellowhead Highway and the Trans-Canada Highway. Keep in mind that this area of snowfall may shift in the next 24hrs or be more localized within the outlined area. Below is our preliminary map for snowfall totals.



Discussion


A low pressure system developing in Alberta will move east throughout the next 24hrs (Alberta Clipper), which will bring a warm front moving east-northeast through parts of Saskatchewan/Manitoba throughout the day on Wednesday, possibly becoming more stationary in SE Saskatchewan Wednesday afternoon before it departs southeast. This stalling front could bring a bit more precipitation to parts of S Manitoba. Alberta Clippers are notorious for moving across the forecast area quickly and bringing colder temperatures in its wake. In this situation, however, the Clipper seems to linger a bit longer than usual due to lagging high pressure currently moving slowly across the Prairies, which is bringing cold temperatures and wind chills tonight to MB/SK. This lagging could boost snowfall totals for parts of S Manitoba. Current thinking was model under-performing for snowfall totals, so leaned more toward the National Blend of Models with the higher snowfall near 16cm.

Snowfall totals valid through Thursday morning

The snowfall outline was based on model blends of the NBM/RDPS/GDPS/NAM and HRRR. Will update tomorrow once snowfall warnings or special weather statements are issued.