Above is a satellite depiction of the storm in currently impacting Manitoba. You can see gravity waves near the SK/MB border, emanating from the storm. We believe this outflow boundary will have a big roll in later development in southern Manitoba. Once the warm front moves over the SK/MB border this afternoon, it should start initiating storms. While these morning storms should have stabilized the environment, the OFB (gravity waves) and terrain enhancement from the Manitoba Escarpment should provide sufficient lift to initiate deep convection.
Models are not picking up on this very well, but we still think the potential is there for some significant supercells later today in Manitoba. Today will be one of those "all or nothing" day, where we could see some significant supercells like Saskatchewan saw yesterday, or some mediocre ones. For this reason, retained the HIGH risk, but brought down the confidence level to MODERATE.
Threat level: HIGH
Confidence: MODERATE (based on model agreements)
Expected hazards: VERY LARGE HAIL (up to baseballs) // DAMAGING WINDS // TORNADOES // FLASH FLOODING
Locations impacted: Russell, Shoal Lake, Brandon, Souris, Melita, Killarney, Virden, MacGregor, Neepawa, Pipestone, Peguis, Asher, Dauphin, Sandy Bay and surrounding towns (in Manitoba)
Timing: 4:00 pm CDT to 8:00 pm CDT
As it stands this morning, we are seeing two potential areas of significant development. Somewhere near Russell-Brandon-Virden and the Interlake. This will need to be monitored throughout the afternoon.