One thing we commonly do while forecasting for storms is look at different model outputs and how well they perform throughout time leading to the storm itself. Another thing that we do and we encourage any new forecasters to do is to look at other people's forecasts to see if they match ours. If you have general agreements between model outputs for your target area and general agreement between forecaster, then that confirms your forecast. Below, we have compiled some forecasters thoughts on the upcoming winter storm for parts of New York state, southern Ontario and Quebec.
Copyright: National Weather Service storm tracks and snowfall totals
3:11 PM EST Thursday 17 January 2019 Winter storm watch in effect for (areas in yellow):
Winter storm Saturday.
A major winter storm will track south of the Great Lakes this weekend. Snow associated with this storm will begin Saturday morning and taper off Saturday night. The latest analysis suggests that snowfall amounts will range from 15 to 25 cm. Lesser amounts in the 5 to 10 cm range are expected for Oakville and northern portions of the city of Hamilton. In addition, strong winds of 40 gusting to 60 km/h will generate widespread blowing snow and bitterly cold wind chill values near minus 20. There is still much uncertainty with the track of this winter storm. A more northerly track would increase snowfall amounts while a more southerly track would decrease amounts. Regardless of the track, very cold wind chill values and blowing snow can be expected this weekend.
Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery. Winter storm watches are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.