Tornado threat increasing for SK/MB

Today August 12, 2020


Threat level: HIGH

Confidence: HIGH (based on model agreements)

Expected hazards: DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS // BASEBALL-SIZE HAIL // FLASH FLOODING // TORNADOES

Locations impacted: in Saskatchewan: Regina, Estevan, Yorkton, Moosomin, Yellowhead Highway and surroundings. In Manitoba: Swan River, Dauphin, Virden, Roblin, Shoal Lake, Winnipegosis and surrounding areas.

Timing: NOW to 12am CDT

Watches issued as of 3:45pm CDT: Severe thunderstorm watches

Surface observations and satellite as of 4pm CDT with cold front (blue), warm front (red) and occluded front (purple)

DISCUSSION: storms are ongoing in the warm sector along the cold front (CF) in southeastern Saskatchewan and more storms firing along the warm front (WF) in east-central Saskatchewan. Storms along the WF in pink shaded area above will have a tendency to rotate and drop tornadoes. These will move east-northeast along the WF and move into Manitoba this evening. Storms along the CF likely less severe but likely large hail and damaging wind threat.



Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Effect


Watches

11:01 AM CST Wednesday 12 August 2020 Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for areas in yellow:


Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain. A trough of low pressure tracking across southern Saskatchewan is triggering isolated thunderstorms this morning. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms are likely to reach severe thresholds. Portions of this severe thunderstorm watch may be upgraded to a tornado watch as the afternoon progresses and conditions are monitored. Large hail can damage property and cause injury. Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings, break branches off trees and overturn large vehicles. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to SKstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #SKStorm.

Watches

3:41 PM CDT Wednesday 12 August 2020 Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for areas in yellow:


Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain. A trough of low pressure tracking across eastern Saskatchewan is triggering scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon and track into parts of western Manitoba later this afternoon and evening. Some of these thunderstorms may reach severe thresholds. This severe thunderstorm watch may be expanded eastwards as the evening progresses. Large hail can damage property and cause injury. Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings, break branches off trees and overturn large vehicles. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to MBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #MBStorm.