A cold front, currently in eastern Montana, will move east throughout the day today and will trigger thunderstorms near Minot, ND late this afternoon into the evening hours. A line of thunderstorms may form and some storms may be strong to near severe limits across North Dakota. However, storms should remain below severe limits for parts of Manitoba.
Tuesday March 31st, 2020
Threat level: NONE
Confidence: HIGH (based on model agreements)
Expected hazards: THUNDERSTORMS // STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
Locations impacted: southwestern Manitoba
Timing: 4:00 pm CDT to overnight
Expected watch: special weather statement possible
Wednesday April 1st, 2020
Threat level: MODERATE TO HIGH
Confidence: MODERATE (based on model agreements)
Expected hazards: SNOW // BRIEF WHITEOUTS // TRAVEL IMPACTS // MIXED PRECIPITATION
Expected snowfall: 10-20cm
Locations impacted: western Manitoba
Expected watch: special weather statements and snowfall warnings
Most likely areas impacted: cities in western Manitoba (Souris, Melita, Brandon, Dauphin, Virden, Trans-Canada Highway from Portage La Prairie to Saskatchewan border and vicinity)
Discussion: downgraded the confidence level from MODERATE to HIGH to MODERATE only as current CAM's are having difficulty positioning the transition zone, the position of the lows and HRRR showing generally dryer solution (while NAM 3km showing heavy wet snow). General consensus remains that travel impacts are likely, especially along the Trans-Canada highway from Portage La Prairie to the Saskatchewan border (potential closures). Anything east of Portage La Prairie seems to remain above 0C in the warm sector and therefore should see all rain from this event. Current guidance still suggest this will be an impactful spring storm, especially across Westman. Expect snowfall warnings to be issued later today.