Thunderstorms then heavy snow ahead for Southern Manitoba


Surface observations at 1325Z Tuesday

A cold front, currently in eastern Montana, will move east throughout the day today and will trigger thunderstorms near Minot, ND late this afternoon into the evening hours. A line of thunderstorms may form and some storms may be strong to near severe limits across North Dakota. However, storms should remain below severe limits for parts of Manitoba.



Tuesday March 31st, 2020

Simulated reflectivity at 7:00 pm CDT Tuesday

Threat level: NONE

Confidence: HIGH (based on model agreements)

Expected hazards: THUNDERSTORMS // STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE

Locations impacted: southwestern Manitoba

Timing: 4:00 pm CDT to overnight

Expected watch: special weather statement possible




Wednesday April 1st, 2020

Forecasted snowfall for Wednesday

Threat level: MODERATE TO HIGH

Confidence: MODERATE (based on model agreements)

Expected hazards: SNOW // BRIEF WHITEOUTS // TRAVEL IMPACTS // MIXED PRECIPITATION

Expected snowfall: 10-20cm

Locations impacted: western Manitoba

Expected watch: special weather statements and snowfall warnings

Most likely areas impacted: cities in western Manitoba (Souris, Melita, Brandon, Dauphin, Virden, Trans-Canada Highway from Portage La Prairie to Saskatchewan border and vicinity)


National Blend of Models showing surface temperatures (in C) on Wednesday morning

Discussion: downgraded the confidence level from MODERATE to HIGH to MODERATE only as current CAM's are having difficulty positioning the transition zone, the position of the lows and HRRR showing generally dryer solution (while NAM 3km showing heavy wet snow). General consensus remains that travel impacts are likely, especially along the Trans-Canada highway from Portage La Prairie to the Saskatchewan border (potential closures). Anything east of Portage La Prairie seems to remain above 0C in the warm sector and therefore should see all rain from this event. Current guidance still suggest this will be an impactful spring storm, especially across Westman. Expect snowfall warnings to be issued later today.