Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 11 2019 - 12Z Wed Mar 13 2019
...Heavy snow expected in the Colorado Rockies Monday & Tuesday...
...Severe weather and heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains Tuesday &
Wednesday...
...Wind driven snow for portions of the central and northern Plains
Wednesday into Wednesday night...
Snows persist across the portions of the central Rockies and Great Basin
through Monday night as an occluded low moves out of the subtropical
Pacific and jumps northeastward into the Intermountain West. Portions of
Colorado are expected to receive up to 10-20 inches of new snowfall Monday
and Tuesday. A strengthening system to its northwest, responsible for its
ejection, brings a new round of coastal rains to the Pacific Northwest
Monday night into Tuesday, with interior snows expected near and behind
the system's cold front. With time, this system merges in with the
deepening cyclone developing in the Colorado High Plains which greatly
increases snow storm potential across Colorado. Temperatures across much
of the West and into the Plains should be below to well below normal with
expansive surface high pressure across the Central U.S. and the Pacific
system moving into the Southwest.
Ahead of the systems impacting the West, a stationary front across the
Gulf Coast states and into the Southern Plains brings the promise of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Monday and into Tuesday. As
the low in the subtropical Pacific enters the Southwest by Tuesday,
showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across the Southern Plains.
Atmospheric conditions could be favorable to support potentially heavy
rainfall and severe weather, especially late Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Both WPC and SPC have highlighted parts of this region within
a slight risk for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms, respectively,
from Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system is forecast to consolidate
into a significant storm by Wednesday morning as it organizes in southeast
Colorado, bringing wind driven snow to portions of northeast Colorado on
Wednesday and into the central and northern Plains Wednesday night.
Temperatures across the Upper Midwest are expected to moderate enough to
support rainfall over an area with a deep snow pack which could accelerate
snow melt Wednesday night.
In the East, near or above normal temperatures on Monday should moderate
by Tuesday as the Central U.S. high pressure area expands eastward. Snows
across the Great Lakes and New England slowly decrease in coverage and
intensity as cold, cyclonic flow slowly diminishes Monday into Tuesday.
Roth/Santorelli
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