It has been fairly quiet for the Northern Plains and Prairie Provinces, which is great for the spring thaw and for the threat of overland flooding. A major winter storm is set to develop off the Colorado Rockies mid-week and impact the Midwest and Northern Plains with some serious snowfall amounts. The problem with this event is that a shift north could mean serious problems for Red River flooding and much uncertainty still remains.
Below is the precipitation track possible on Wednesday into Friday morning. Most of the Red River Basin seems to be unaffected by this storm system, but a shift north could be a problem:
As much as 30-40cm could fall in the axis depicted below, which is not good for areas that have already been saturated with catastrophic flooding over the past several weeks:
Models seem to be in general agreement to place the Low track somewhere on the Nebraska/Kansas border. This would keep the axis of heavy precipitation well to the south of Manitoba/North Dakota.
This storm will also bring the possibility of severe weather in its warm sector for the Southern Plains on Wednesday and Deep South/Ohio Valley on Thursday. It certainly bares watching.