High-Impact Snowstorm for Manitoba Next Week

Updated: Apr 11


*April 11th Video Update*:




 


*April 10th Video Update*:



 

Previous Discussion (Apr 9th):


Sadly winter isn't done with parts of the Prairie Provinces...A significant Colorado Low is expected to bring heavy snowfall to parts of the Dakotas and Southern Manitoba late next week. Below is a breakdown of what we know.


 

Wednesday Apr 13th to Friday Apr 15th



Threat level: HIGH

Confidence: MODERATE (based on model agreements)

Expected hazards: HEAVY SNOWFALL // BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE

Secondary hazards: spring flooding from snow melt

Locations impacted: Southern Manitoba // Northwestern Ontario

Timing: Wed Apr 13th to Fri Apr 15th

Timing of worst conditions: Thursday April 14th

Expected watch(s): winter storm watches // blizzard warnings possible


GEFS ensemble showing snowfall totals by Thursday April 14, 2022.

Discussion: model and ensemble consensus over Colorado Low formation early next week bringing high-impact severe weather threat for the Southern Plains of the US will track northeast across the Midwest. As per usual with Colorado Lows, the NW quadrant of the low will feature the heaviest precipitation axis and deformation zone. Ensemble output shows agreement in low placement tracking somewhere near Sioux Falls and into Minnesota. This would place the deformation zone somewhere near Grand Forks to the Ontario border. The location of this deformation zone will be crucial to determine the area of heaviest snowfall.


ECMWF ensemble probability of seeing 12inches (30cm) or more by Thursday evening.

Based on latest ensemble and probabilistic data, the heaviest precipitation axis is expected across Southern Manitoba on Thursday. Therefore, Manitoba should see a multi-day all-snow event starting Wednesday and ending on Friday. Total snowfall amounts are uncertain, but given local terrain enhancements and ensemble agreements, most of Southern Manitoba near the US border and especially Southeastern Manitoba could see between 20-30cm with some areas approaching and/or seeing over 40cm of snow. This will be a high-impact snowfall event, which will likely have significant impacts on the spring thaw and flooding across the Red River Valley. On top of all this, northwesterly winds and cold temperatures will bring blizzard-like conditions with blowing snow across the RRV on Wed/Thur and easing on Friday.


ECMWF ensemble showing modelled low location.

Please monitor Environment Canada for the latest watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html



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