Heavy snow possible tonight for SW Manitoba


National Blend of Models (NBM) total snowfall

The NBM above shows the potential for up to 8.9cm of snowfall accumulation for parts of southwestern Manitoba by 7pm Saturday. Most accumulation is expected in areas of higher terrain near the North Dakota border. Elsewhere, the snow show melt on contact or not stay on the ground for very long.



Special weather statements have been issued by Environment Canada:

Statements

1:41 PM CDT Friday 08 May 2020 Special weather statement in effect for areas in grey


Rain followed by possibly heavy snow tonight.


A system moving through southern Saskatchewan today is bringing rain showers with a few scattered thunderstorms. As this system progresses further south, the rain will transition to snow along its northern flank this evening and overnight.


For southeast portions of Saskatchewan and southwest portions of Manitoba, precipitation should begin as rain this afternoon and then quickly transition to snow before midnight. The entire system exits our region Saturday morning.


There is currently a good deal of uncertainty on how fast this transition to snow will occur and with convective elements in the precipitation, there is also uncertainty on total snowfall accumulation. The exact track of the low, the initial melting on warm ground and the capacity of snow to accumulate on higher terrain will all play a role in determining how much snow will accumulate. At this moment, we expect a swath of snow between 5 to 10 cm to fall from Yorkton south to Oxbow and east through Brandon and Pilot Mound. However, because of the uncertainty we cannot rule out locally higher amounts that exceed 10 cm of snow, especially along higher terrain.


Snowfall warnings may be issued as this system progresses.