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Extreme cold to return to Prairies Monday

GFS model depicting the pattern for the rest of February for Continental United States. White colours indicating extreme cold and warm colours indicating warm temperatures.

Most Canadians have been having a break from the extreme cold over the last week or so, well an Arctic airmass is set to return south on Monday morning, bringing an abrupt return of extreme cold temperatures for the Prairie Provinces. Below is a model trend for Monday morning by the GFS model. This trend depicts temperatures in the -30C early Monday morning for Saskatchewan and Manitoba. While this trend could change, it is a strong indication that extreme cold temperatures will return Sunday night into Monday.

Model trends for Monday morning for Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Temperature in Celsius.

While there are still a few unknowns, such as how far north a Low pressure system in the United States could spread warm air, wind chills approaching or surpassing -40 could be possible in southern Manitoba. Confidence in extreme cold temperatures and wind chills nearing or exceeding -50 for northern MB/SK is higher since the southern storm systems won't impact temperatures that far north as much as it would in southern Manitoba.

Model blend of wind chills (in C) for Monday morning by the GFS

Stay tuned for more updates throughout the week, but it looks like these extreme cold temperatures should be short-lived, unlike previous cold outbreaks.

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