Explosive supercells expected for SE Manitoba this afternoon

PASPC Day 1 thunderstorm outlook for Manitoba. Click the image for latest outlook.

Clearing is currently occurring in southwestern Manitoba behind the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms moving through the province. This will allow for maximum instability buildup in southern Manitoba before the stronger storms develop later this afternoon. Below is a satellite depiction of clearing

GEOS 16 depiction at 9:45am

While we think models may be overdoing it a bit, substantial instability should build up in south-central Manitoba. Below is a model depiction of the unstable airmass that will be present in southern Manitoba, showing significant mixed-layer instability. This means that you should get explosive thunderstorm development this afternoon and storms should become supercells // severe very quickly.

Mixed-layer instability values exceeding 4000J/kg per the HRRR model

Our map for expected severe weather and tornadoes (below) remains accurate for today. Overall, explosive supercell development is expected this afternoon with all hazards possible from Winnipeg to Morden and most of southeastern Manitoba.

Severe thunderstorm and tornado risk for Monday July 7th 2019

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