Oct 12

Forecast Verification Example

1 comment

Edited: Oct 12

This post is an example of the forecast verification process

 

"Forecast verification for May 24, 2016"

 

 

Forecast verification will be taken from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center and Environment Canada using official weather summaries or reports.

 

Forecast verification discussion:

 

"A verification discussion may be posted if available. Here is where we will post the summary discussion or any relevant pictures/videos."

 

Forecast verification "points" breakdown:

 

For severe weather: if forecasted for tornadoes, at least 1 tornado was reported (1 point); if forecasted for hail, at least 1 large hail report (1 point); if forecasted for damaging winds, at least 1 damaging winds report (1 point).

 

  • Bonus points: 1 point added for each tornado reported in your target area.

  • Bonus points: forecast tornadoes 5 days in advance (25 points per tornado).

 

For winter hazards: if forecasted for winter storm, at least 1 winter storm warning issued (1 point); if forecasted for blizzard, at least 1 blizzard warning issued (1 point); if forecasted heavy snowfall, at least 1 snowfall warning issued or heavy snowfall report (+/- 5cm what you forecasted) (1 to 2 points).

 

  • Bonus points: 1 point added for each blizzard warnings issued for your forecast area (by county). For example, if 4 blizzard warnings are within your forecast area, then you get 4 points.

  • Bonus points: forecast a blizzard warning 7 days in advance (30 points).

 

All other categories outside of the ones mentioned above will be assessed on a "per case" basis. Multiple points may be earned. For example, if your forecast area mentions tornadoes, and 10 tornadoes are reported/confirmed within it, you will earn 10 points. To forecast a tornado 5 days in advance, you most post your "target area" in "your forecast" 5 days prior the event and make no edits. The reported/confirmed tornadoes must fall into your target area.

 

Feel free to comment on the forecast verification page with your pictures/videos.

New Posts
  • Weather summary for Manitoba issued by Environment Canada at 9:25 a.m. CDT Saturday 12 October 2019. Discussion. A powerful Colorado Low approached Manitoba beginning on Thursday, October 10th and brought with it substantial rain, heavy snow, strong winds, and blowing snow to the southern half of the province. All reports below are current as of 9 AM CDT on Saturday, October 12th. Heavy snow continues over Westman and the Interlake Saturday morning, but has tapered off to flurries elsewhere over the south. The following snowfall accumulation reports were received by Environment and Climate Change Canada stations and the Cooltap volunteer observing network: Holland: 58 cm Wasagaming: 30 cm Brandon: 26 cm Dauphin: 16 cm Snowfall accumulation reports received by Environment and Climate Change Canada via social media: Carberry: 74 cm Morden: 64 cm Treherne: 60 cm Dunrea: 40 cm Winnipeg: 34 cm Rosser: 30 cm Strong winds were widespread across southern Manitoba, with most stations reporting gusts in the 70 to 85 km/h range on Friday or Friday night. The following peak wind gusts were received by Environment and Climate Change Canada stations: Oakpoint: 100 km/h Portage Southport: 94 km/h Winnipeg Airport: 80 km/h The following peak wind gusts were received by Environment and Climate Change Canada via Manitoba Agriculture reporting sites: Eden: 101 km/h Clearwater: 92 km/h Sinclair: 89 km/h Waskada: 89 km/h Baldur: 87 km/h Snowflake: 87 km/h Windygates: 87 km/h Lakeland: 85 km/h St. Rose: 85 km/h In the southeast corner of the province, precipitation fell chiefly as rain, tapering off Friday afternoon. The following are 48-hour totals in this area up to 9 AM CDT, October 12, received by Environment and Climate Change Canada via Manitoba Agriculture reporting sites: Lac du Bonnet: 51 mm Flanders Lake: 48 mm Great Falls: 47 mm Sprague Lake: 46 mm Falcon Lake: 42 mm Elma: 39 mm Gardenton: 38 mm Marchand: 38 mm Sprague: 38 mm Green Lake: 36 mm Vivian: 36 mm Hadashville: 35 mm Prawda: 35 mm Woodridge: 35 mm As this is an ongoing system, this bulletin will be updated as new reports are received by Environment and Climate Change Canada. Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report. End/PASPC